Fossil fuels in a changing climate : impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation

This volume assesses the effects on the fossil fuel markets of climate change policies.

The timespan covered is to the year 2020, and the projections are based on a global economic-environmental simulation model developed by the authors.

This model produces projections for global emissions, quantities and prices of fossil fuels and other commodities. Three scenarios are constructed for a world with and without implementation of climate change agreements.

These are: the baseline case, Business as Usual, which describes a world which does not adopt specific measures directed against greenhouse gas emissions; Kyoto, which assumes that the Kyoto Protocol is successfully implemented; and the Ambitious Scenario, which postulates that after the first commitment period specified in the Kyoto Protocol (2008-12), a new, more ambitious climate change agreement with targets for developing countries is adopted.