International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis

o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com- modity market model building and policy analysis.

This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain.

This conference would not have been possible with- out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A.

Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors.

I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities.

The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena.

In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com- modity markets.