The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's phenomenal international bestsellerThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbableshows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self,Independent on Sunday

'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin,Independent

'Funny, quirky and thought-provoking ... confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' John Cornwell,Sunday Times

'Idiosyncratically brilliant' Niall Ferguson,Sunday Telegraph

'Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling' Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author ofFreakonomics