Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country

How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth?

William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens.

Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071-2100 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade.

This detailed study: outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations.

Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent.

Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.

The author's previous work in this area, ""The Economics of Global Warming"", was selected by ""Choice"" for its 1993 ""Outstanding Academic Books"" list and was the winner of the Harold and Margaret Sprout prize for the best book on international environmental affairs, awarded by the International Studies Association.